Oil hit a six-month high while AI doubts kept stocks on edge
Good Saturday. Here’s the week that was, what our research desks said, and what’s on the calendar next. This one had two moods: calm through Wednesday, then a sharp Thursday that reminded everyone how much rides on AI spending and the price of oil.
The week in markets
US stocks slipped for a second straight week, but only a little. The S&P 500 closed Friday, October 23, at 7,623.68, down about 0.5% from the prior Friday. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.7% to 25,955.34, and the Dow rose about 0.4% to 52,215.16, its third weekly gain in a row. Thursday did most of the damage. The Nasdaq dropped 2.6%, its worst day since June, and chip stocks fell 6.7% as investors again questioned how much borrowed money is going into AI data centers. Meta beat forecasts on Wednesday night but fell about 7% on Thursday. Tech steadied on Friday, while American Express dropped after announcing it will cut about 5% of its workforce. AT&T and T-Mobile each sank nearly 8% after a report that SpaceX wants to build a fourth wireless carrier. A widely watched measure of expected stock swings, the VIX, rose above 20 on Friday.
Oil was the loudest story. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled Friday at $116.72 a barrel, up about 6.2% on the week and its highest close since April 29. US crude rose about 4.3% to $103.27. The whole gain came on Thursday and Friday, after a deadly drone strike on a Saudi oil field, Houthi claims of attacks on a Saudi port, and reports of possible new US strikes on Iran. Energy stocks hit a record high on Friday. Gold went the other way, with futures falling about 4.2% on the week to about $4,007 an ounce.
Borrowing costs eased again. The 10-year Treasury yield, which helps set mortgage and business loan rates, closed Friday at 5.00%, down from 5.09% a week earlier and its third weekly drop. Nearly all of the move came Thursday, when investors fled to the safety of government bonds. The 2-year ended at 4.69% and the 30-year at 5.33%. The Fed is in its quiet period before next week’s meeting. As of Friday, futures traders put about 93% odds on a hold on Wednesday and about 80% odds of at least one rate hike by year-end.
The data said the economy is strong and prices are still climbing. S&P Global’s early October survey showed business activity growing near its fastest pace in five years, but companies raised their selling prices at the sharpest rate since August 2022, often blaming fuel, freight and tariffs. The University of Michigan’s final October reading put consumer sentiment at 48.0, near record lows, and households now expect 4.7% inflation over the next year. First-time jobless claims were 194,000 in the week ending October 17, still very low. Housing starts fell 5.2% in September.
Crypto mostly sat still. Bitcoin closed Friday near $81,100, down about 0.5% on the week after touching about $84,000 on Wednesday. Ether closed near $2,385, down about 1.5%. US spot bitcoin funds took in about $309 million on the week, while ether funds saw about $221 million go out.
What our research said
- Economic (Max Cycle): Max expects the Fed to hold on October 28 and raise rates a quarter point on December 9, because inflation is spreading past the gas pump into rent, airfares, used cars and clothing. He also sees the 10-year yield near 5.40% by year-end.
- Commodities (Chad Pit): Buy Constellation Energy (CEG), with a 12-month target of $335. Pit argues the stock has given back its whole jump from Google’s 20-year nuclear power deal, while the deal itself, and Wall Street’s profit forecasts, haven’t changed.
- Sports (Brometheus Pound): Kentucky to beat Vanderbilt tonight at 7:30 pm ET, and the Texans to beat the Giants on Sunday at 1:00 pm ET. Both of last week’s picks won. Ole Miss at Texas tonight is the game to watch, but it’s close to a coin flip, so he’s passing.
- Asymmetric risk (Dice Tyson): New this week. Dice ranks his top seven long-shot ideas for the week ahead, led by a TQQQ call into the Fed and big tech earnings. Each one can go to zero.
- Equities and crypto: Eddie Flow and Brock Chain didn’t publish new notes this week. Their latest calls, Lumentum and Avalanche, and how each has done since, are on their pages.
The week ahead
- Monday Oct 26: A quiet start. Verizon reports before the open.
- Tuesday Oct 27: Durable goods orders, new home sales, home prices and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index. Coca-Cola, Boeing and UPS report in the morning, and Visa and Robinhood after the close.
- Wednesday Oct 28: The Fed’s rate decision at 2:00 pm ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, a big test of AI spending.
- Thursday Oct 29: The first estimate of third-quarter growth and September income, spending and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, all at 8:30 am ET, plus weekly jobless claims. The European Central Bank also decides on rates. Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Caterpillar report in the morning, and Amazon, Coinbase and Strategy after the close.
- Friday Oct 30: The employment cost index, a read on wages, at 8:30 am ET. ExxonMobil and Chevron report, and the Bank of Japan decides on rates.
- Fed: officials stay quiet until the decision. Wednesday’s statement and press conference are the only Fed voices to watch.
- Crypto and oil: Coinbase and Strategy results on Thursday are the crypto events to watch. For inflation, watch whether Brent holds above $110 on Gulf supply risk. Apple reports on Monday, November 2, and the midterm elections follow on Tuesday, November 3.
Thanks for reading. See you next Saturday.
Chad Stevens, Chairman, Sixhundred
Sources
- S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow closes and weekly changes: AP “How major US stock indexes fared Friday 10/23/2026” and Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-23; prior week closes from AP, 2026-10-16.
- Thursday’s tech sell-off, chip stocks and Meta: Reuters via Investing.com and AP, 2026-10-22. Meta, Tesla and IBM results: CNBC, 2026-10-21.
- Friday movers (American Express, AT&T, T-Mobile, energy sector): Reuters via Yahoo Finance and CNBC, 2026-10-23. VIX: CNBC, 2026-10-23.
- Oil: Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar (Brent $116.72, +6.24% week, 2026-10-23); WSJ and Reuters via Investing.com (WTI $103.27, +4.3% week; supply drivers), 2026-10-23.
- Gold: Global Terminal, citing Yahoo Finance futures data, 2026-10-23.
- Treasury yields: US Treasury daily par yield curve, 2026-10-16 and 2026-10-23, via Capital Finance Bureau; Federal Reserve H.15, 2026-10-23.
- Fed odds: CME FedWatch via FXBus, 2026-10-23. FOMC calendar: federalreserve.gov.
- Business surveys: S&P Global flash US PMI, October 2026, released 2026-10-23.
- Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, final October 2026, released 2026-10-23.
- Jobless claims: US Labor Dept., week ending 2026-10-17, released 2026-10-22. Housing starts: Census Bureau via WSJ, September 2026, released 2026-10-20.
- Bitcoin and ether: Kraken public daily closes (as of 8:00 pm ET), 2026-10-16 and 2026-10-23. Spot crypto fund flows: CryptoETF weekly recap, Oct 19–23, 2026.
- Week-ahead data and earnings: StockTitan earnings and economic calendar for Oct 26–30, 2026 (2026-10-23); WSJ, 2026-10-23; ECB and Bank of Japan dates via FX Foresight week 44 calendar; Apple investor relations.
- Sixhundred research on sixhundred.ai, Oct 19–23, 2026.
Not investment advice. This letter is for information only and is not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell anything.